I know every site in the world does their own Emmy and Oscar award predictions and they typically always look and sound the same. Traditionally, we like to stray from the norm and put a new spin on your entertainment news and information; but I've always wanted to do one of these, so forgive me just this one time.We've got some interesting races in this year's Emmy Awards (Sunday, 8PM, ABC) and I actually find myself caring about who wins in certain categories again.
The big story that jumps out has to be the first ever basic cable shows nominated for the Outstanding Drama Series award ("Mad Men" from AMC and FX's "Damages) - and I think one of them is actually going to win it!
This is just another giant step in the leveling of the playing field between cable and traditional network broadcasting. There's more freedom on cable and there's not the annoying pressure to appeal to so many demographics at once. We should all get comfortable with this because it's not going away.
Here are a few other things to keep an eye on during the telecast:
- This is the 60th anniversary of the awards, so get ready for a deluge of nostalgia.
- In case you haven't heard, there's not just one host for the evening, there's FIVE. All five of the Outstanding Reality Show Host nominees (Heidi Klum, Howie Mandel, Jeff Probst, Ryan Seacrest, and Tom Bergeron) will be sharing the MC duties throughout the night. I don't think it's going to necessarily take anything away from the telecast, but I can't see this adding anything to it either.
- I still can't believe that Amy Poehler from "Saturday Night Live" received an Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy nom. Not because she didn't deserve it, just because it's so rare to see someone from "SNL" get that kind of attention. While she's not as big of a star as Will Ferrell was on "SNL", she's definitely more "grounded" (is that right word?) in her roles and deserves the nomination. She will be leaving the late night show sometime soon, however; as she is still slated to do the very mystery new project from Greg Daniels that was supposed to be an "Office" spinoff but now isn't... yeah, I'll get back to you on that one.
- For the second year in a row, the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy is the toughest and best category of the bunch... and that's with Jon Cryer from "Two and a Half Men" included. To me it's a toss-up between Neil Patrick Harris ("HIMYM"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office"), Jeremy Piven ("Entourage"), and Kevin Dillion ("Entourage"). I will give my official prediction in a minute, but as long as it isn't Cryer, I'll be fine (You know it's going to be Cryer, don't you?).
OK, now for the categories:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA
The Nominees: "Boston Legal", "Damages", "Dexter",
"House", "Lost", "Mad Men"
The Skinny: Again, "Damages" and "Mad Men" are the first basic cable shows to be in this category, "Lost" enjoyed a revival last season, "House" and "Boston Legal" are more about the characters and "Dexter" is just happy to be here.
Who Should Win: "Mad Men". You know me, I don't watch a lot of hour-long dramas but I love this show. Very stylish without being cliche and is actually about something.
Who Will Win: "Mad Men". The Emmys love to get attention by making history and an awarding a basic cable show this prestigious honor would do just that.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")
The Skinny: Spader has already one this one a few times and there's new enough blood to rule him out. "Mad Men" is going to get some love somewhere and it's either going to continue here with Hamm or he might get this one because the Outstanding Series nod is going to "Lost". I've heard nothing but good reviews about Byrne and Cranston and it's tough for me to be subjective about Hugh Laurie because he's just been ripping off John C. McGinley's Dr. Cox from "Scrubs" since day one.
Who Should Win: Cranston. If nothing else, than just for his transformation from the bumbling dad on "Malcom in the Middle"
Who Will Win: Man, this is tough for me. My head is telling me Byrne, but my heart is telling me Laurie. I need to make an official pick so I'm going with Laurie just because I want to be wrong.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
The Skinny: Another tough, very talented field that's too close to call. You can't really be upset with anyone that comes out victorious here.
Who Should Win: Hunter. I don't even know what this means but Holly Hunter has always been the quintessential actor to me.
Who Will Win: Close. The Emmys always whore themselves out to big movie stars and I can't see them stopping themselves here.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Who Should Win: "Mad Men". You know me, I don't watch a lot of hour-long dramas but I love this show. Very stylish without being cliche and is actually about something.
Who Will Win: "Mad Men". The Emmys love to get attention by making history and an awarding a basic cable show this prestigious honor would do just that.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")
The Skinny: Spader has already one this one a few times and there's new enough blood to rule him out. "Mad Men" is going to get some love somewhere and it's either going to continue here with Hamm or he might get this one because the Outstanding Series nod is going to "Lost". I've heard nothing but good reviews about Byrne and Cranston and it's tough for me to be subjective about Hugh Laurie because he's just been ripping off John C. McGinley's Dr. Cox from "Scrubs" since day one.
Who Should Win: Cranston. If nothing else, than just for his transformation from the bumbling dad on "Malcom in the Middle"
Who Will Win: Man, this is tough for me. My head is telling me Byrne, but my heart is telling me Laurie. I need to make an official pick so I'm going with Laurie just because I want to be wrong.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
The Skinny: Another tough, very talented field that's too close to call. You can't really be upset with anyone that comes out victorious here.
Who Should Win: Hunter. I don't even know what this means but Holly Hunter has always been the quintessential actor to me.
Who Will Win: Close. The Emmys always whore themselves out to big movie stars and I can't see them stopping themselves here.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Ted Danson ("Damages"), Michael Emerson ("Lost"), Zeljko Ivanek ("Damages"), William Shattner ("Boston Legal"), John Slattery ("Mad Men")
The Skinny: It's always good to have Shattner around and Emerson is probably the fan favorite in this category. If Slattery (I will always think of him as the principal from "Ed") wins this one, then look out for a BIG night for "Mad Men".
The Skinny: It's always good to have Shattner around and Emerson is probably the fan favorite in this category. If Slattery (I will always think of him as the principal from "Ed") wins this one, then look out for a BIG night for "Mad Men".
Who Should and Will Win: Danson. With two nominees, I think the voters will try to feel some "Damages" love in this category and following the theory above with Glenn Close, Danson is the guy.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal"), Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers and Sisters"), Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment"), Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy").
The Skinny: Didn't last year's winner Katherine Heigl refuse a nomination because she thought the writing on "Grey's" was subpar? That can't be good news for Oh and Wilson.
Who Should Win: Wilson. Dr. Bailey was really good this year but won't win because of Izzie. I can't help but think that Heigl comments will affect the voters.
Who Will Win: Wiest. She should thank Heigl in her acceptance speech.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY
The Nominees: "Curb Your Enthusiasm", "Entourage", "The Office", "30 Rock", "Two and a Half Men"
The Skinny: This category is like a really cool party that you almost don't want to go to because you know that "Two and a Half Men" will be there and will ruin it. I understand why it's the most watched comedy on TV (two stars from the 80's + a demographic of people in their 30's and 40's that have kids and are actually home to watch TV = ratings gold) but that doesn't mean the show is good. It's actually unwatchable. We tried at a couple of our TV Groups last year and couldn't make it through the cold open. I had to take a shower just to get rid of the stench of cliches and innuendos.
Who Should and Will Win: "30 Rock". I'm the biggest "Office" fan there is, but I'll be the first to admit that "30 Rock" was a far superior show last season.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")
The Skinny: This is a two horse race between Baldwin and Carell with Pace as the dark horse
Who Should Win: Carell should win for "The Dinner Party" episode alone. He carries "The Office" each week and it's amazing to watch him grow but never evolve.
Who Will Win: Baldwin. Don't get me wrong, Baldwin is great on "30 Rock" but he doesn't carry the show (Tina Fey does) like Carell does on "The Office".
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Christina Applegate ("Samatha Who?"), America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty"), Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine"), Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds").
The Skinny: This is another solid category. Louis-Dreyfus has officially left the "Seinfeld" curse in the rear-view, Parker has been money on "Weeds" and Christinia Applegate is one of the funniest females we currently have in the profession. Unfortunately for all of them, they're in the same category with the Emmys' darling Tina Fey
Who Should and Will Win: Fey. She was legitimately stellar last season. She was the best performer on the best show and deserves the recognition.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men"), Kevin Dillon ("Entourage"), Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother"), Jeremy Piven ("Entourage"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office")
The Skinny: As much as I would love to see Wilson land a win one year (he deserves it), this category is just too tough. It's like the NFC East in football in that you can't believe someone has to be left out.
Who Should and Will Win: Harris. If the Emmys bail and go the easy route, it will be Piven again; but NPH absolutely made the leap as Barney this past season on "HIMYM" and I think the voters will reward him for it.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth ("Pushing Daisies"), Amy Poehler ("SNL"), Jean Smart ("Samatha Who?"), Holland Taylor ("Two and a Half Men"), Vanessa Williams ("Ugly Betty")
The Skinny: This is the one category I'm officially protesting. Not that the nominated women weren't deserving but I thought that Jenna Fischer's Pam and Melora Hardin's Jan from "The Office" were two of the best characters on television. Neither of them gets a nomination? Crazy!
Who Should Win: Hardin or Fischer
Who Will Win: Phoehler has this one gift-wrapped.
OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION
The Nominees: "American Idol", "The Amazing Race", Dancing with the Stars", "Project Runway", "Top Chef"
Who Should Win: I will be secretly rooting for "Top Chef". That show took reality programming to a whole new place for me this year.
Who Will Win: I can't see anything knocking off "The Amazing Race"
Well that's it for me, I'm out.
For a complete list of the nominations, click here. I can't wait to watch the telecast and we'll see how well I did on Monday. Who do YOU think is going to be the big winners on Emmy night? Let me know in the comments section below.
Enjoy!
- Josh Mahler
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal"), Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers and Sisters"), Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment"), Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy").
The Skinny: Didn't last year's winner Katherine Heigl refuse a nomination because she thought the writing on "Grey's" was subpar? That can't be good news for Oh and Wilson.
Who Should Win: Wilson. Dr. Bailey was really good this year but won't win because of Izzie. I can't help but think that Heigl comments will affect the voters.
Who Will Win: Wiest. She should thank Heigl in her acceptance speech.
OUTSTANDING COMEDYThe Nominees: "Curb Your Enthusiasm", "Entourage", "The Office", "30 Rock", "Two and a Half Men"
The Skinny: This category is like a really cool party that you almost don't want to go to because you know that "Two and a Half Men" will be there and will ruin it. I understand why it's the most watched comedy on TV (two stars from the 80's + a demographic of people in their 30's and 40's that have kids and are actually home to watch TV = ratings gold) but that doesn't mean the show is good. It's actually unwatchable. We tried at a couple of our TV Groups last year and couldn't make it through the cold open. I had to take a shower just to get rid of the stench of cliches and innuendos.
Who Should and Will Win: "30 Rock". I'm the biggest "Office" fan there is, but I'll be the first to admit that "30 Rock" was a far superior show last season.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")
The Skinny: This is a two horse race between Baldwin and Carell with Pace as the dark horse
Who Should Win: Carell should win for "The Dinner Party" episode alone. He carries "The Office" each week and it's amazing to watch him grow but never evolve.
Who Will Win: Baldwin. Don't get me wrong, Baldwin is great on "30 Rock" but he doesn't carry the show (Tina Fey does) like Carell does on "The Office".
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Christina Applegate ("Samatha Who?"), America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty"), Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine"), Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds").
The Skinny: This is another solid category. Louis-Dreyfus has officially left the "Seinfeld" curse in the rear-view, Parker has been money on "Weeds" and Christinia Applegate is one of the funniest females we currently have in the profession. Unfortunately for all of them, they're in the same category with the Emmys' darling Tina Fey
Who Should and Will Win: Fey. She was legitimately stellar last season. She was the best performer on the best show and deserves the recognition.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men"), Kevin Dillon ("Entourage"), Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother"), Jeremy Piven ("Entourage"), Rainn Wilson ("The Office")
The Skinny: As much as I would love to see Wilson land a win one year (he deserves it), this category is just too tough. It's like the NFC East in football in that you can't believe someone has to be left out.
Who Should and Will Win: Harris. If the Emmys bail and go the easy route, it will be Piven again; but NPH absolutely made the leap as Barney this past season on "HIMYM" and I think the voters will reward him for it.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth ("Pushing Daisies"), Amy Poehler ("SNL"), Jean Smart ("Samatha Who?"), Holland Taylor ("Two and a Half Men"), Vanessa Williams ("Ugly Betty")
The Skinny: This is the one category I'm officially protesting. Not that the nominated women weren't deserving but I thought that Jenna Fischer's Pam and Melora Hardin's Jan from "The Office" were two of the best characters on television. Neither of them gets a nomination? Crazy!
Who Should Win: Hardin or Fischer
Who Will Win: Phoehler has this one gift-wrapped.
OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION
The Nominees: "American Idol", "The Amazing Race", Dancing with the Stars", "Project Runway", "Top Chef"
Who Should Win: I will be secretly rooting for "Top Chef". That show took reality programming to a whole new place for me this year.
Who Will Win: I can't see anything knocking off "The Amazing Race"
Well that's it for me, I'm out.
For a complete list of the nominations, click here. I can't wait to watch the telecast and we'll see how well I did on Monday. Who do YOU think is going to be the big winners on Emmy night? Let me know in the comments section below.
Enjoy!
- Josh Mahler
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